Forecast

Seat projection via proportional MMP allocation from weighted average of 50 polls.

Simulated coalition probabilities

72%

Centre-right majority

NAT + ACT + NZF ≥ 61 seats

63 seats (current avg)

19%

Centre-left majority

LAB + GRN + TPM ≥ 61 seats

57 seats (current avg)

No clear majority

Neither bloc reaches 61

Based on 10,000 simulations as of 11 Mar 2026. Each run adds random variation to polling and re-allocates seats proportionally.

Party seat allocation (proportional MMP)

vs 2023 election result

LAB

Labour43 seats+9

33.3% party vote2023: 34 seats

NAT

National40 seats-8

30.69% party vote2023: 48 seats

GRN

Green14 seats-1

11.18% party vote2023: 15 seats

NZF

First13 seats+5

9.97% party vote2023: 8 seats

ACT

ACT New Zealand10 seats-1

7.57% party vote2023: 11 seats

Seat range by party (90% confidence interval)

LAB

Labour38–49 seats (median 43)

NAT

National34–45 seats (median 40)

GRN

Green12–18 seats (median 14)

NZF

First10–16 seats (median 13)

ACT

ACT New Zealand8–12 seats (median 10)

TOP

TOP0–0 seats (median 0)

TPM

TPM0–0 seats (median 0)

Shaded range shows 5th–95th percentile from 10,000 simulations. Solid bar marks the median.

Model methodology

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Polling average

Weighted average of 50 polls with 14-day exponential decay half-life. Proportional seat allocation with 5% threshold.

Sentiment index

AI-scored media + social sentiment per party, contributing a ±2pp adjustment to polling estimates. Not yet integrated into forecast.

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Simulation

10,000 iterations — adds random variation to polling averages and re-allocates seats proportionally each time.

Model roadmap

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Polling data

Wikipedia scraper live

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Historical results

2017–2023 seeded

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Weighted average

14-day half-life decay

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Monte Carlo

10,000 sims live