NZ Election Tracker

Centre-right leads with 63 seats

Live forecast based on weighted average of 50 polls, proportional MMP seat allocation, and sentiment analysis.

Forecast

Weighted average of recent polls with exponential decay, allocated to seats using NZ's proportional MMP method.

Poll-derived

Combined seat totals for each coalition bloc (see Seat Projection below for individual parties). 61 of 120 seats needed for a majority.

Centre-right

53%63 seats

Centre-left

48%57 seats

Hung

Based on latest polling via proportional seat allocation. Improves as sentiment + economic data feeds in.

Election Day

Countdown to the NZ General Election on 7 November 2026.

7 Nov 2026

238days to go

06:47:12.7

34 weeks7 months

Seat Projection

120 parliamentary seats allocated using NZ's proportional MMP method, based on the weighted polling average.

120 Seats

LAB

NAT

GRN

NZF

ACT

61 to win

Latest Poll

The most recent published opinion poll, showing party vote share and sample size.

Curia

Curian=1,000 · Mar 2026

LAB

34.4%

NAT

28.4%

GRN

10.5%

NZF

9.7%

Sentiment Pulse

AI-scored media sentiment per party, averaging scores from −1 (negative) to +1 (positive) over a 7-day rolling window.

1000 scores

NAT

+0.03→

LAB

+0.04→

NZF

+0.02→

GRN

+0.11↑

ACT

+0.09↑

TPM

+0.08↑

↑ Positive (>0.05)→ Neutral↓ Negative (<−0.05)

Scale: −1 (very negative) to +1 (very positive). Scored via AFINN-165 + Claude Haiku.